📊 B3 Closing & Analytical Mapping of Market Gamma (GEX) — 06/18/2026

📈 1. Market Summary (Closing: 06/18/2026)

The Ibovespa ended today's session in a slight drop of 0.10%, at 168,277.55 points, stemming the accelerated bleeding from the late afternoon of the previous day, but demonstrating a total inability to sustain rallies. In the first half of the trading session, supported by the US stock markets and the announcement of the US-Iran peace agreement, the index attempted a strong technical reaction, reaching a maximum of 169,542.38 points.

However, the mood soured in the afternoon. The Selic rate cut by the Copom, occurring at the exact moment the Focus Bulletin revised inflation expectations and the Fed adopted a considerably conservative/hawkish tone, generated a severe movement of foreign capital outflow from B3. The dollar soared in the commercial segment, advancing 1.30% and closing quoted at R$ 5.174. This macro environment drained the strength of local stocks, pushing the Ibovespa to renew minimums around 167,910.63 points in the final stretch, saving itself from a larger tumble due to the technical tail support provided by the options buyer flow. The total financial volume amounted to R$ 26.10 billion.

📊 Closing Panel

• Ibovespa (IBOV): ▼ -0.10% (168,277.55 points)
• Commercial Dollar: ▲ +1.30% (Selling at R$ 5.174 / Intraday high hitting R$ 5.190).
• New York (S&P 500 / Nasdaq): ▲ +1.09% and ▲ +1.91% (US stock markets rallying with geopolitical optimism and strength of tech companies).
• Brent Crude Oil: ▼ (Quoted in strong decline below US$ 80, in the range of US$ 79.54 reflecting the total elimination of the naval blockade premium with the geopolitical agreement).

🚀 Dynamics of Main Assets

• Raízen (RAIZ4): ▲ +4.55% — It was one of the most traded stocks and showed a significant tactical high in today's session, diverging from the energy sector's behavior.
• Petrobras (PETR4): ▼ Remains weak, penalized by the systematic retreat of Brent crude in the foreign market below the psychological line of US$ 80 and by tensions involving internal corporate policies post-Copom.
• Vale (VALE3): Traded in marginal volatility, without firm iron ore drivers after yesterday's drop in Dalian, failing to support a sustainable recovery of the index.
• Consumption & Retail Sector: Suffered strong intraday volatility. Government statements denying food price control measures brought partial relief, but the rise of the dollar and future DIs pressured the sector in the final stretch.

🔍 2. Analytical Mapping of Market Gamma (GEX) — June/July Series

The inability of the Ibovespa to break the intraday top (169.5k) consolidated the structural dominance of institutional desks and kept protection robots on alert in the final transition of series.

📐 Overview of Structural GEX (IBOV & Main Assets)

Classic mathematical model of Market Gamma:

The stable closing below the waterline kept the Net GEX negative at -R$ 1.98 billion (Persistent Short Gamma Regime).

◄───────────────────────────────■───────────────────────○───────────────────────►
167.9k                       168.2k                  171.5k                    169.5k
[Minimum / Major Put Wall]   [Current Price]     [Gamma Flip Point]        [Day's Maximum]

🚨 1. Market Regime: Active Short Gamma (Technical Damping at the Minimum)

Unlike yesterday, the Short Gamma regime acted more contained today. Although the index operates below the Flip Point (171,500 points), the selling flow of the Delta-Hedging from the Market Makers found exhaustion when the price tested the minimum of 167,910. There was a strong buying absorption of volatility precisely at the same levels as yesterday's session, generating a defensive lateral locking in the late afternoon.

🎯 2. Open Interest Concentration (Technical Triggers)

• The Steel Put Wall (168,000 points): For the second consecutive day, the 168k line proved to be the main point of quantitative friction for the institutional market. The minimum of 167,910 represented a marginal violation immediately repelled by the mechanical execution of hedge robots, preventing an accelerated collapse towards 165k.
• Compression by Upcoming Expiration: June series options are entering the final stretch of accelerated time decay. The loss of strength at the intraday maximum (169.5k) caused the collapse of the out-of-the-money Calls premium, dehydrating the momentum of investors trying to seek a Short Squeeze.

📊 Detailing of Skew and GEX by Leading Assets

A. VALE3 (Ref Price: R$ 64.25)

• Total GEX: -R$ 210 million (Moderate Short Gamma).
• Positioning Analysis: The stock remains weakened below R$ 65.00. Treasuries maintain a defensive selling bias in the cash asset. The most important volumetric support and options floor moved rigidly to the range of R$ 63.50.

B. PETR4 (Ref Price: R$ 37.05)

• Total GEX: -R$ 1.35 billion (High Short Gamma).
• Positioning Analysis: With Brent trading at US$ 79.54, the asset dangerously flirted with losing the psychological support of R$ 37.00. The microstructural risk lies in the strike of R$ 36.50 (Major Put Wall). An opening below this level tomorrow will force institutional desks to dump physical lots in the book to maintain delta neutral.

C. ITUB4 (Ref Price: R$ 34.22)

• Total GEX: -R$ 120 million (Pinning Unwinding).
• Positioning Analysis: The asset broke the magnetic point of R$ 34.50 observed in yesterday's session. The unwinding of institutional locks generated secondary selling pressure. The new options equilibrium zone is now projected in the range of R$ 34.00.

🛠️ 3. Structural Recommendations and Portfolio Management

1. Shielding Against Dollar Surge: The strong advance of the dollar (+1.30% to R$ 5.174) and the maintenance of resilient rates abroad impose a portfolio redesign. Income-generating structures based on options (Jade Lizards) should focus on dollarized exporting stocks that capture this exchange rate gain (such as metallic commodities or pulp and paper), keeping the short Puts legs safe in the July series far out of the money.
2. Exploration of OTM Bear Spread in the Oil Sector: Due to the structural breakdown of Brent and the severe Short Gamma of PETR4, the strategic assembly of Put Spreads (bear spread) in the July series with strikes focused below the Put Wall of R$ 36.50 presents an excellent risk/reward ratio if the asset loses its definitive support in the coming days.